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SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2015-11-22 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SF
35.7%
SEA
64.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: -0.131 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Russell Wilson (SEA) -0.021 vs Blaine Gabbert (SF) +0.177 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: -0.102 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • SF on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SF defense: +0.138 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 19
–
SEA 26
Projected margin: SEA by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

SF

Carlos Hyde RB Out Foot
Anquan Boldin WR Questionable Hamstring
Kenneth Acker CB Probable Concussion
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Shoulder
Tramaine Brock CB Probable Shin
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Colin Kaepernick QB Probable left Shoulder
Keith Reaser CB Probable Ankle
Eric Reid S Probable Chest

SEA

Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring
Bruce Irvin LB Out Knee
Marshawn Lynch RB Questionable Abdomen
Michael Bennett DE Probable Not Injury Related
Cary Williams CB Probable Hip
Cliff Avril DE Probable Ankle
Russell Okung T Probable Toe
Luke Willson TE Probable Toe
Doug Baldwin WR Probable Toe
Demarcus Dobbs DE Probable Shoulder
K.J. Wright LB Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 13
–
SEA 29

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:01 TD SEA (10:01) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 6
  • Q1 03:09 TD SEA (3:09) 34-T.Rawls right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – SEA 13
  • Q2 07:21 TD SEA (7:21) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-A.Lynch]. SF 0 – SEA 19
  • Q2 00:13 TD SF (:13) (Shotgun) 2-B.Gabbert pass short middle to 89-V.McDonald for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – SEA 20
  • Q3 09:47 FG SF (9:47) 9-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 10 – SEA 20
  • Q3 05:04 FG SEA (5:04) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan. SF 10 – SEA 23
  • Q3 00:10 FG SF (:10) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 13 – SEA 23
  • Q4 12:41 TD SEA (12:41) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 34-T.Rawls for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 13 – SEA 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:05) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 35, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 39 for 4 yards (86-K.Nelson).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (15:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to SEA 9, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 9 for no gain.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:02) 5-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to SEA 25, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 25 for no gain (11-Q.Patton). SEA-53-N.Moody was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on SF-11-Q.Patton, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at SEA 25.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 11 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 55%

    (1:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 30 yards to SF 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-35-D.Shead.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:22) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to SF 29, Center-49-C.Gresham. 10-B.Ellington to SF 35 for 6 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 3 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 96%

    (9:47) 9-P.Dawson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 93%

    (5:04) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (:10) 9-P.Dawson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (10:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:41) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to SF 12, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-86-K.Nelson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 32%

    (3:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 38 yards to SF 9, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 89 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:09) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 47, Center-86-K.Nelson. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 44 for -3 yards (11-Q.Patton).