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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 20 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:04) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Gresham, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.43 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model