Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 55

Seattle Seahawks 29 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(7:41) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to SF 12, Center-49-C.Gresham, fair catch by 10-B.Ellington.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.07 EP
72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model