4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 72

Seattle Seahawks 20 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 9-J.Ryan punts 43 yards to SF 29, Center-49-C.Gresham. 10-B.Ellington to SF 35 for 6 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP