Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 12 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 29

(10:42) 5-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to SEA 14, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.01 EP
73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model