Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 13 at the 75

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 29

(5:45) 5-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 33, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-86-K.Nelson.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.77 EP
72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model