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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 11 at the 38

Seattle Seahawks 20 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 9-J.Ryan punts 30 yards to SF 8, Center-49-C.Gresham, downed by SEA-35-D.Shead.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP