Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 78

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(8:36) 5-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to SEA 41, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.63 EP
60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 78, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model