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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
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TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NYG
56.0%
TB
44.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): +0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 25
–
TB 24
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

NYG

Jon Beason LB Out Ankle
Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Larry Donnell TE Out Neck
J.T. Thomas LB Out Ankle
Prince Amukamara CB Out Pectoral
Leon McFadden CB Questionable Groin
Uani 'Unga LB Questionable Neck
Rueben Randle WR Questionable Hamstring
Craig Dahl S Probable Neck
Orleans Darkwa RB Probable Back
Geoff Schwartz G Probable Ankle

TB

Vincent Jackson WR Out Knee
Jacquies Smith DE Out Ankle
Major Wright S Out Hamstring
D.J. Swearinger S Questionable Toe
William Gholston DE Questionable Knee
Tony McDaniel DT Questionable Groin
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Questionable Shoulder
Logan Mankins G Probable Not Injury Related
Gerald McCoy DT Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 32
–
TB 18

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:30 FG TB (13:30) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. NYG 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 09:57 FG NYG (9:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – TB 3
  • Q1 08:08 FG TB (8:08) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. NYG 3 – TB 6
  • Q1 01:00 TD NYG (1:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 82-R.Randle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – TB 6
  • Q2 11:25 TD NYG (11:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 34-S.Vereen for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – TB 6
  • Q2 00:10 FG TB (:10) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. NYG 17 – TB 9
  • Q3 11:53 FG NYG (11:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 20 – TB 9
  • Q3 07:20 FG TB (7:20) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. NYG 20 – TB 12
  • Q4 09:35 TD TB (9:35) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston scrambles right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – TB 18
  • Q4 07:24 FG NYG (7:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 23 – TB 18
  • Q4 00:28 FG NYG (:28) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 26 – TB 18
  • Q4 00:13 TD NYG (:13) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 34-C.Sims to TB 10 for 4 yards. Lateral to 13-M.Evans to TB 7 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by NYG-31-T.Wade at TB 5. 31-T.Wade for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 32 – TB 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (13:30) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (9:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (8:08) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 84%

    (7:03) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 64%

    (3:05) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 13-O.Beckham Jr. (90-H.Melton).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (:10) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 92%

    (11:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 67%

    (7:20) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 34%

    (:31) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to NYG 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:51) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 64 yards to TB 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, touched at TB 12, and recovers at TB 12. 43-B.Rainey to TB 13 for 1 yard (43-C.Dahl, 98-D.Moore).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 67%

    (7:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 29%

    (5:07) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 82%

    (:28) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.