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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model