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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 17

New York Giants 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model