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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(7:03) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP