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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 35

New York Giants 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:05) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short middle to 13-O.Beckham Jr. (90-H.Melton).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.34 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model