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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:08) (Field Goal formation) 10-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.43 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 10, worth +0.41 EP
KICK +2.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model