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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 34

New York Giants 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18

What Actually Happened

(7:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-J.Brown 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.65 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP