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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 49

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18 – New York Giants 23

What Actually Happened

(5:07) (Punt formation) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model