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JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-11-08 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

JAX
33.1%
NYJ
66.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • JAX on 7 more days rest than NYJ
  • JAX offense: -0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ): +0.155 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
NYJ 26
Projected margin: NYJ by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

JAX

Marqise Lee WR Doubtful Hamstring
Zane Beadles G Questionable Foot
James Sample S Questionable Shoulder
Josh Evans S Probable Groin
Allen Hurns WR Probable Ankle
Julius Thomas TE Probable Abdomen

NYJ

Calvin Pryor S Out Ankle
Bilal Powell RB Doubtful Ankle
Willie Colon G Questionable Knee
Brandon Marshall WR Questionable Ankle
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Shoulder
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Hip
Kellen Davis TE Probable Hand
Eric Decker WR Probable Knee
Ryan Fitzpatrick QB Probable left Thumb
Chris Ivory RB Probable Hamstring
Nick Mangold C Probable Neck
Dexter McDougle CB Probable Ankle
Stevan Ridley RB Probable Knee
Geno Smith QB Probable left Shoulder
Devin Smith WR Probable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 23
–
NYJ 28

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:04 FG JAX (9:04) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 05:14 TD NYJ (5:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 00:47 TD NYJ (:47) 33-C.Ivory left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 00:20 TD JAX (:20) 5-B.Bortles pass deep right to 88-A.Hurns for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 04:36 FG JAX (4:36) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 13 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 02:06 TD NYJ (2:06) 33-C.Ivory up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 10:22 FG JAX (10:22) 2-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger. JAX 16 – NYJ 21
  • Q4 02:48 TD NYJ (2:48) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 15-B.Marshall for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. JAX 16 – NYJ 27
  • Q4 02:21 TD JAX (2:21) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep left to 81-B.Walters for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 22 – NYJ 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (14:11) 4-R.Quigley punts 30 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 17 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 78%

    (9:04) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 82%

    (2:27) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 87-E.Decker to JAX 10 for 15 yards (22-A.Colvin).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 41%

    (11:52) 19-B.Anger punts 38 yards to NYJ 4, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 10 for 6 yards (59-R.Davis).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:17) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-58-E.Henderson.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:40) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 47, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley to JAX 37 for 16 yards (46-C.Tinker).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 36%

    (3:41) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 46%

    (1:40) 19-B.Anger punts 34 yards to NYJ 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 9 yards (58-J.Tripp).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:33) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to 50, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-26-Dar.Walls.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 12 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 36%

    (9:03) 19-B.Anger punts 31 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (4:36) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (:37) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 33 for 11 yards (59-R.Davis).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:26) 4-R.Quigley punts 48 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-57-T.Reilly.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 91%

    (10:22) 2-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 33%

    (7:51) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (3:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-T.Purdum. 41-N.Marshall MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-47-K.Davis at JAX 25. 47-K.Davis to JAX 25 for no gain (41-N.Marshall).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 20%

    (1:05) 4-R.Quigley punts 43 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-54-J.Lattimore.