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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 54

New York Jets 14 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to JAX 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-58-E.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model