Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 60

New York Jets 21 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to JAX 22, Center-46-T.Purdum. 41-N.Marshall MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-47-K.Davis at JAX 25. 47-K.Davis to JAX 25 for no gain (41-N.Marshall).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.56 EP
51% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -2.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model