4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 97

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 19-B.Anger punts 50 yards to NYJ 47, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley to JAX 37 for 16 yards (46-C.Tinker).

The Three Options

GO -4.26 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 97, worth -6.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model