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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 2-J.Myers 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model