Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(14:11) 4-R.Quigley punts 30 yards to JAX 44, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.53 EP
66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 74, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model