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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 40

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 19-B.Anger punts 34 yards to NYJ 6, Center-46-C.Tinker. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 15 for 9 yards (58-J.Tripp).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.70 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model