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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 2-J.Myers 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model