4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
@
CIN Home

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
Thursday 2015-11-05 · 20:25 Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CLE
22.8%
CIN
77.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.317 vs Johnny Manziel (CLE) -0.053 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Johnny Manziel in place of Josh McCown)
  • CLE offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 18
–
CIN 28
Projected margin: CIN by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

CLE

Joe Haden CB Out Concussion
Brian Hartline WR Out Concussion
Andrew Hawkins WR Out Concussion
Josh McCown QB Out right Shoulder
Jordan Poyer S Out Shoulder
Donte Whitner S Out Concussion
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Ankle
Nate Orchard LB Questionable Shoulder
Craig Robertson LB Questionable Ankle
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow

CIN

Andre Smith T Out Concussion
Carlos Dunlap DE Questionable Shoulder
Rey Maualuga LB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
CIN 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:12 TD CIN (7:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – CIN 6
  • Q1 00:10 FG CLE (:10) 6-T.Coons 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – CIN 7
  • Q2 04:42 TD CIN (4:42) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 85-T.Eifert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – CIN 13
  • Q2 00:27 TD CLE (:27) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short right to 29-D.Johnson Jr for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – CIN 14
  • Q3 04:09 FG CIN (4:09) 2-M.Nugent 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CLE 10 – CIN 17
  • Q4 13:35 TD CIN (13:35) (Shotgun) 12-M.Sanu left end for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Reverse from Dalton to Benard to Sanu CLE 10 – CIN 23
  • Q4 07:48 TD CIN (7:48) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 85-T.Eifert for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – CIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:29) 8-A.Lee punts 34 yards to CIN 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (7:50) 32-J.Hill right guard to CLE 9 for 4 yards (98-J.Meder).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:10) 6-T.Coons 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:03) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 42 for no gain (47-P.Dawson; 21-D.Dennard).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:24) 8-A.Lee punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%

    (11:24) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (9:15) 8-A.Lee punts 28 yards to CLE 49, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-34-I.Crowell.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (4:09) 2-M.Nugent 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (3:09) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for 1 yard (29-D.Johnson Jr). PENALTY on CIN-99-M.Hunt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 19.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:23) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CLE 41 for 29 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 33. No player number announced by officials. Tate credited with 3 return yards, due to penalty.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 31%

    (3:34) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 15-M.Moore, Center-46-C.Harris, RECOVERED by CLE-15-M.Moore at CIN 38. 15-M.Moore to CIN 37 for 1 yard (10-K.Huber).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 21 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (2:41) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short left to 80-D.Bowe to CIN 10 for 11 yards (21-D.Dennard).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (:53) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Benjamin (27-D.Kirkpatrick). Penalty on CLE-11-T.Benjamin, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.