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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 10-K.Huber punt is BLOCKED by 15-M.Moore, Center-46-C.Harris, RECOVERED by CLE-15-M.Moore at CIN 38. 15-M.Moore to CIN 37 for 1 yard (10-K.Huber).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.26 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP