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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 13
Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0
What Actually Happened
(7:50) 32-J.Hill right guard to CLE 9 for 4 yards (98-J.Meder).
The Three Options
GO
+3.63 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.29 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth +0.21 EP
KICK
+2.46 EP
- 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT
+0.36 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
