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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 85

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 10-K.Huber punts 43 yards to CLE 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 42 for no gain (47-P.Dawson; 21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.31 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model