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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 10

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 2-M.Nugent 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 10, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model