Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 74

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate to CIN 19 for 1 yard (29-D.Johnson Jr). PENALTY on CIN-99-M.Hunt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model