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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(2:41) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass short left to 80-D.Bowe to CIN 10 for 11 yards (21-D.Dennard).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.61 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.15 EP