Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 31

What Actually Happened

(7:23) 8-A.Lee punts 46 yards to CIN 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-B.Tate pushed ob at CLE 41 for 29 yards (59-T.Carder). PENALTY on CIN-21-D.Dennard, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 33. No player number announced by officials. Tate credited with 3 return yards, due to penalty.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.61 EP
67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model