4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 16:05 O.co Coliseum, Oakland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ
52.7%
OAK
47.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ defense: -0.190 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.139 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ offense: +0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 26
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYJ

Bilal Powell RB Out Ankle
Calvin Pryor S Out Ankle
Devin Smith WR Out Ankle
Nick Mangold C Doubtful Neck
Willie Colon G Questionable Knee
Eric Decker WR Questionable Knee
Buster Skrine CB Questionable Shoulder
Dion Bailey S Probable Hip
Breno Giacomini T Probable Thumb
Chris Ivory RB Probable Hamstring
Dexter McDougle CB Probable Hand
Ryan Quigley P Probable right Shin
Marcus Williams CB Probable Hamstring
Leonard Williams DE Probable Knee

OAK

Neiron Ball LB Out Knee
Denico Autry DT Probable Concussion
T.J. Carrie CB Probable Shoulder
Justin Ellis DT Probable Ankle
Keith McGill CB Probable Foot
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 20
–
OAK 34

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:21 FG NYJ (7:21) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 3 – OAK 0
  • Q1 02:00 TD LV (2:00) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 18-A.Holmes for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – OAK 6
  • Q2 09:46 TD LV (9:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-M.Crabtree for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – OAK 13
  • Q2 05:19 TD LV (5:19) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 18-A.Holmes for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – OAK 20
  • Q2 00:44 FG NYJ (:44) #79 B.Qvale, #78 L.Douzable, #60 D.Ferguson reported as Eligible. 2-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 6 – OAK 21
  • Q3 11:20 TD LV (11:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 22-T.Jones for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – OAK 27
  • Q3 07:23 TD NYJ (7:23) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-E.Decker for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 12 – OAK 28
  • Q3 05:50 FG LV (5:50) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. NYJ 13 – OAK 31
  • Q4 12:55 FG LV (12:55) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. NYJ 13 – OAK 34
  • Q4 08:45 TD NYJ (8:45) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 47-K.Davis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [96-D.Autry]. NYJ 19 – OAK 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 86%

    (7:21) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to LV 22, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 24 for 2 yards (26-Dar.Walls).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (8:03) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to LV 32, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 45 for 13 yards (57-T.Reilly). Penalty on LV-22-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 64%

    (2:18) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 89%

    (:44) #79 B.Qvale, #78 L.Douzable, #60 D.Ferguson reported as Eligible. 2-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 66%

    (5:50) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:13) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to LV 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 16 for 3 yards (58-E.Henderson). PENALTY on LV-22-T.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LV 13.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 77%

    (12:55) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:44) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to NYJ 41, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 45 for 4 yards (57-R.Armstrong). PENALTY on NYJ-55-L.Mauldin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 45.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 53%

    (5:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Thompkins. Penalty on NYJ-66-W.Colon, Offensive Holding, declined.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:49) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to NYJ 18, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:30) 4-R.Quigley punts 52 yards to LV 27, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 31 for 4 yards (58-E.Henderson).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 9 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:07) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to NYJ 16, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 22 for 6 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 87 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 87-E.Decker to NYJ 34 for 21 yards (42-L.Asante).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

    (:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 15-B.Marshall (31-N.Thorpe).