Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 64

New York Jets 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 31

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 4-R.Quigley punts 51 yards to LV 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 16 for 3 yards (58-E.Henderson). PENALTY on LV-22-T.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LV 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.21 EP
64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model