Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – New York Jets 20

(3:07) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to NYJ 16, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 22 for 6 yards (49-J.Olawale).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.17 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 68, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model