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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 28 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model