Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 60

New York Jets 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to LV 22, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 24 for 2 yards (26-Dar.Walls).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
55% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model