4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 31 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 11-S.Janikowski 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.42 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model