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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 28

New York Jets 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep left to 15-B.Marshall (31-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.96 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP