Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 80

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 7-M.King punts 39 yards to NYJ 41, Center-59-J.Condo. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 45 for 4 yards (57-R.Armstrong). PENALTY on NYJ-55-L.Mauldin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model