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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Joe Philbin
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Thursday 2015-10-29 · 20:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 8.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

MIA
27.8%
NE
72.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.282 vs Ryan Tannehill (MIA) -0.014 EPA/dropback
  • MIA offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
NE 27
Projected margin: NE by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIA

Brice McCain CB Questionable Knee
Chris McCain LB Probable Not Injury Related
Spencer Paysinger LB Probable Groin
Jordan Phillips DT Probable Ankle
Mike Pouncey C Probable Hip
Zackary Bowman CB Probable Shoulder
Brent Grimes CB Probable Knee
Matt Moore QB Probable Nose

NE

Marcus Cannon T Out Toe
Rufus Johnson LB Out Illness
Jabaal Sheard DE Out Ankle
Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Hamstring
Dion Lewis RB Questionable Abdomen
Keshawn Martin WR Questionable Hamstring
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Knee
Trey Flowers DE Probable Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB Probable Ribs
Josh Kline G Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 7
–
NE 36

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 TD NE (10:21) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 6
  • Q2 14:08 SAF NE (14:08) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 5, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. MIA 0 – NE 9
  • Q2 03:29 FG NE (3:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 25th consecutive FG, ties franchise record (Vinatieri) MIA 0 – NE 12
  • Q2 00:29 TD NE (:29) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 33-D.Lewis for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – NE 18
  • Q3 11:30 TD MIA (11:30) (Shotgun) 26-L.Miller right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NE 19
  • Q3 06:13 FG NE (6:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 26th consecutive FG, new franchise record (Vinatieri 25) MIA 7 – NE 22
  • Q4 13:33 TD NE (13:33) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 11-J.Edelman for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – NE 28
  • Q4 07:23 TD NE (7:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 11-J.Edelman for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 24th career game with 4+ TD passes, 3rd most all-time. NE 12-Brady 19th career game with 4+ TD passes & no interceptions, most all-time (Brees & P.Manning have 18). MIA 7 – NE 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:55) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 15 for no gain (30-Z.Bowman).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 49%

    (2:31) 12-T.Brady up the middle to MIA 38 for 1 yard (97-J.Phillips).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (15:00) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 19%

    (12:49) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 6 for -1 yards (18-M.Slater).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:03) 4-M.Darr punts 70 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 10 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 16 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:53) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to MIA 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 27 for 4 yards (43-N.Ebner).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 18 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (8:16) 4-M.Darr punts 60 yards to NE 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 22 for 11 yards (42-S.Paysinger). PENALTY on NE-24-R.Melvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:30) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIA 26.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 62%

    (3:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 25th consecutive FG, ties franchise record (Vinatieri)

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:53) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NE 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 49 for 19 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 90%

    (6:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 26th consecutive FG, new franchise record (Vinatieri 25)

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:32) 4-M.Darr punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 24%

    (1:03) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 85%

    (4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 80-D.Sims to NE 17 for 6 yards (22-J.Coleman).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 62 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (1:24) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to MIA 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 11 for 6 yards (36-B.King).