Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 4-M.Darr punts 60 yards to NE 11, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 22 for 11 yards (42-S.Paysinger). PENALTY on NE-24-R.Melvin, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NE 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.48 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.50 EP
74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model