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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 4-M.Darr punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP