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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 18

New England Patriots 19 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 26th consecutive FG, new franchise record (Vinatieri 25)

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP