Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 83

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 12

(1:53) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to NE 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 49 for 19 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model