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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 39

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 12-T.Brady up the middle to MIA 38 for 1 yard (97-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 39, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model