Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 94

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 9

(12:03) 4-M.Darr punts 70 yards to NE 24, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Edelman to NE 34 for 10 yards (35-W.Aikens).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.76 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 94, worth -5.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model