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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 78

New England Patriots 9 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIA 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model