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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
PIT Home

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2015-11-01 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

CIN
49.8%
PIT
50.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.512 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.378 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Ben Roethlisberger in place of Landry Jones)
  • PIT offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CIN on 7 more days rest than PIT

Predicted Final Score

CIN 22
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CIN

Leon Hall CB Questionable Back

PIT

Terence Garvin LB Out Knee
Stephon Tuitt DE Out Knee
Will Allen S Out Ankle
Michael Vick QB Out Hamstring
Cody Wallace C Probable Illness
William Gay CB Probable Shoulder
James Harrison LB Probable Not Injury Related
Heath Miller TE Probable Not Injury Related
Ben Roethlisberger QB Probable Knee
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Not Injury Related

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 16
–
PIT 10

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:49 TD PIT (7:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 02:54 FG CIN (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – PIT 7
  • Q2 15:00 FG CIN (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 6 – PIT 7
  • Q3 06:31 FG PIT (6:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. CIN 6 – PIT 10
  • Q4 03:01 TD CIN (3:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 18-A.Green for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 12 – PIT 10
  • Q4 01:51 FG CIN (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 16 – PIT 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 80%

    (2:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to CIN 43, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to PIT 39 for 18 yards (98-V.Williams).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 19 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 35, Center-60-G.Warren. 24-A.Jones to CIN 50 for 15 yards (45-R.Nix). PENALTY on CIN-24-A.Jones, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CIN 50.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 19 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 24 yards to 50, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 37%

    (7:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 10, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-B.Tate to CIN 15 for 5 yards (46-W.Johnson, 51-S.Spence).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 51%

    (3:06) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 33 yards to PIT 5, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-21-D.Dennard.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 30%

    (:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to CIN 5, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:19) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 37 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (6:31) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (2:43) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-C.Heyward), Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber, RECOVERED by PIT-94-L.Timmons at PIT 23. 94-L.Timmons to PIT 24 for 1 yard (81-T.Kroft). PENALTY on PIT-92-J.Harrison, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at PIT 24.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 20 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 59%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 18 yards to CIN 17, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 19-B.Tate.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:36) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to CIN 24, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-51-S.Spence.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

    (1:51) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.