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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to CIN 10, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-B.Tate to CIN 15 for 5 yards (46-W.Johnson, 51-S.Spence).

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.46 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 43, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP